It’s that time again — the blogosphere is chock full of predictions for 2009 on a variety of topics, including the IT Infrastructure space. What’s on a bunch of these lists (like Security to the Core, and TaoSecurity)? IPv6! Quick, run and hide in the cellar! IPv6 is right around the corner!!!
IPv6 in 2009? Of all the things that might happen in the coming year, I’m fairly certain that’s not one of them. This isn’t my first rodeo; I’ve been talking to folks publicly about IPv6 deployment scenarios at least since 1997.
It’s true that folks are carefully tracking IPv4 allocation exhaustion. However, when that counter runs down to zero, it’s very unlikely that suddenly IT folks in the US are going to dedicate their lives to moving to IPv6 post haste (or really, at any significant rate whatsoever). As of October 2008, less than 0.3% of world-wide Internet clients are using IPv6. With this abysmal adoption rate, there are lots of options at the IPv4 allocation exhaustion point that are going to be much more attractive and cost effective compared with turning the whole community on its head and moving to IPv6. Especially in a “down economy”, organizations are not going to have the discretionary capital to purchase the necessary infrastructure equipment to make this painful transition, not to mention the folks to learn about/implement/operate said gear. (Additionally, for the moment, I’m ignoring the many technical and security hurdles that would also come with such a change).
So, what happens when the clock runs out?
Well, it’s important to note that those predictions are based on when the current available addresses are assigned using the current allocation methodology. In the US, ARIN has done an abysmal job of establishing and enforcing allocation standards that reflect true organizational needs. Address space reclaims only occur occasionally, and strictly on a voluntary basis. For better or worse, this means that there’s a lot of “slop” even once all the addresses have been allocated, which will offer us all many years of frustration and entertainment.
One might compare the current IPv4 allocation strategy to the homesteading period in the United States. The government encouraged/facilitated pioneers to move west and claim available land. Once the land was largely allocated, the environment changed to what we know today as the real estate market. Instead of colonizing some other far-away planet when the land allocation was “exhausted” (which would be akin to the Internet moving to IPv6 now), a secondary market for land was created. Just like we’ve also experienced with Internet domain names, the next logical step for the IPv4 space is a market based on supply and demand. Have extra address space and need cash? Sell it to someone who needs it.
For many, many years to come, even if the current IPv4 space available for allocation becomes “exhausted,” at least in the US it’s going to be less expensive and more practical to re-allocate IPv4 addresses (either through forced administrative reclaims or a market based on supply and demand) than to jump ship and move to IPv6.
Just call me crazy.
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5 Responses
January 3rd, 2009 at 2:19 pm
Yes, you re right. You are just clueless and crazy
January 3rd, 2009 at 4:37 pm
There will be more IPv6 lab testing for many applications including unified communcation world wide.
January 4th, 2009 at 6:28 am
Before you “jump ship and move to IPv6″ is a wrong architecture. The network will be dual stack for may decades. There will be IPv4 and IPv6 connectivity for servers and node during IPv6 transition. Any current application must support dual stack transition for seamless transition to the IPv6.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:00 am
Trent – I laughed when I read this because IPV6 has enough IP addresses to give one to every living thing and every grain of sand. And certainly a costly network equipment upgrade spiral. — Blaine
March 22nd, 2009 at 7:12 pm
Actually, Trent is correct. You guys are in deinal. If your organizations has any current operating system in your environment then you have a very good chance IPv6 is already in your environment. This is based on hundreds of security assessment over the last year.
Now you have one of two choices: The first is to leave this potential security vulnerabilty open, not including IPv6 in your risk model and mitigating IPv6 on your infrastructure. There for, you now in violation with your compliance. Opps.
The second is you begin to mitigate the security exposure, by beginning the process of implementing IPv6.
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